Wall Street Futures Edge Higher as Investors Weigh Iran Demands, Hormuz Outlook and Berkshire Results

U.S. stock futures were higher on Monday as investors weighed the latest news on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, digested corporate earnings and prepared for key inflation data later this week. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained but Dow futures were little changed.

Hopes of a quick deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz soured after Iran outlined conditions that must be met for the waterway to fully reopen, keeping market sentiment cautious. The development has served to keep oil and inflation risks front and center in investors' minds.

Investors also took a positive signal from Berkshire Hathaway, where new chief executive Greg Abel has begun putting some of the company’s huge cash hoard back into equities. The move is seen as a sign that Berkshire is finding opportunities in the market after a long period of holding high levels of cash.

U.S. inflation data due this week is also expected to give clues to the Fed’s next move on policy. The economy is entering an important week of economic data.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 edged higher at the start of Monday's session as investors remained focused on negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. S&P 500 futures were up about 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose around 0.3% in early trading, according to Reuters. Dow futures were slightly lower.

The moves were a market trying to weigh geopolitical risks against optimism that has endured around corporate earnings and investment in AI. The S&P 500 recently hit a record closing level and earnings results have been generally better than expected. Reuters said 85.1% of S&P 500 companies that reported have beaten earnings expectations, citing LSEG data.

The Hormuz situation is one of the biggest external risks for markets. Iran said it was close to an agreement with Oman on new shipping routes. But Tehran has also insisted the United States must meet certain conditions before the strait can be reopened.

That uncertainty matters because the waterway is a critical route for global energy shipments. Any extended disruption could put sustained upward pressure on oil prices and cloud the inflation outlook.

Oil prices were little changed on Monday as traders weighed a potential diplomatic deal versus caution over conditions to reopen the route.

The key question for equity investors is, is this a more stable reopening that eases pressure on the energy markets, or do talks break down and geopolitical risks return to the front burner.

Futures muted move indicates that investors not making a big directional bet yet. But markets will want to see clearer evidence on Hormuz, inflation and monetary policy before committing to bigger moves.

Iran’s new demands have dampened hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be operating as normal. The strategic waterway’s re-opening is conditional on conditions set by Tehran, keeping geopolitical uncertainty high for investors to wonder the possible impact on oil supplies and inflation.

The Strait is of particular importance for global energy markets because of the volume of oil and other energy products regularly shipped thru the region. A prolonged disruption could raise transport costs and add to the pressure on energy prices.

Investors are therefore watching developments around Hormuz as an important guide to how oil prices will move. A credible deal would alleviate concerns about supply disruption, while a protracted stand-off could keep energy markets under pressure.

The geopolitical uncertainty is playing out against a backdrop of a relatively strong U.S. equity market. That has left investors with a tricky backdrop, with corporate earnings and AI-related investments still underpinning stocks but energy and geopolitical risks still a possible source of volatility.

Changing expectations for Federal Reserve policy have also unsettled markets, Reuters reported. July jobs data was weaker than expected, tempering expectations for rate hikes in the near term, but investors are waiting for inflation data to make stronger calls on monetary policy.

Of particular importance are Hormuz and inflation. Higher oil prices can be passed on to transportation, manufacturing and consumer costs, potentially making it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

That means investors are looking at the geopolitical situation not only for its immediate impact on energy markets, but also for its potential impact on interest rates.

So a successful diplomatic deal would be good news for stocks because it would ease fears about oil prices and inflation. If the negotiations break down, you could see the reverse.

Berkshire Hathaway is also drawing investor attention, as CEO Greg Abel has begun putting more of the conglomerate’s huge stash of cash into the stock market. The move represents a major change in capital allocation following Warren Buffett’s extended period of holding large amounts of cash.

Second-quarter operating earnings increased 16% to $12.98 billion and the company was a net buyer of equities, repurchasing about $4.5 billion of its own shares, Berkshire Hathaway Inc said.

The conventional view of Berkshire as a barometer of long-term investing sentiment has put the spotlight on how it makes its money. The company’s strong cash position gives it the flexibility to take advantage of attractive opportunities when they arise in periods of market uncertainty.

Investors are seeking clues about how Berkshire’s investment strategy may change under Abel’s leadership. His choice to put some cash back into equities is reflective of a more willingness to put capital to work after periods of caution.

That doesn’t mean he’s making a blanket prediction for the entire stock market. Berkshire’s investment decisions are based on the valuation and outlook for individual businesses, and the company is still awash in cash.

The change, however, is raising eyebrows at a time when U.S. equities are trading near record levels.

Investors are also mulling whether strong corporate earnings can continue to underpin stock valuations in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty. The S&P 500 has been buoyed by strong earnings growth and ongoing enthusiasm for tech and artificial intelligence stocks.

Hence the increased purchasing by Berkshire in stocks gives investors yet another data point when pondering whether corporate fundamentals still look strong enough to justify the market’s lofty valuations.

How Berkshire deploys capital will be in the spotlight as Abel takes over in Buffett’s succession.

Futures activity was little changed as the day’s economic calendar for the week may matter less to Wall Street. Investors are awaiting new U.S. inflation data which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy and the path of Treasury yields.

The inflation report follows weaker-than-expected employment data in July that has lowered expectations of an imminent rise in interest rates. Still, investors want to see if price pressures are easing enough to give the Federal Reserve more breathing room.

Should the inflation data be softer that could help the case for less restrictive monetary policy which could be a positive for equities and other risk assets. But such a number could backfire, doing the opposite and feeding fears that inflation is still too entrenched.

And then there is the energy situation which brings another dimension of uncertainty. If the Hormuz crisis leads to sustained high oil prices, investors may be left with higher inflation and slower growth. Policymakers and financial markets will face a difficult situation.

But the market is holding for the time being. The S&P 500 also recently hit a record high close again and technology stocks remain bolstered by strong AI-related investment and corporate earnings.

Investors are also looking at corporate news, including more developments at SpaceX and Apple. SpaceX shares were still climbing after recent strong gains, Reuters said, while Apple shares fell after a downgrade.

Geopolitical developments, corporate earnings and economic data all add up to mean several forces are vying to determine the next market direction.

Futures climbed higher Monday, but investor optimism was tempered by caution. The next major moves will depend on whether inflation numbers, Hormuz talks and corporate earnings combine to bolster the bullish narrative or provide fresh reason for caution.

The question for Wall Street is whether the market can keep ignoring geopolitical and inflation risks for the rest of August as the market moves deeper into the month.

<a href="https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/iran-issues-new-demands-berkshire-hathaway-results--whats-moving-markets-4847977" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">1. INVESTING.COM</a>

<a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sp-500-nasdaq-futures-tick-higher-with-hormuz-outlook-focus-2026-08-10/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">2. REUTERS</a>

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/09/stock-market-today-live-updates.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">3. CNBC</a>