IRS Tax Refunds 2026: Average Payout Jumps 10.9% to $2,290 Despite Slower Filing

Average IRS tax refunds rose to $2,290 in 2026, up 10.9% from last year, even as fewer Americans file early. Here’s what the latest data means for taxpayers.

Americans are receiving greater average tax returns in the 2026 filing season than last year, despite filing at a slower pace in the first few weeks than a year ago. According to the most recent Internal Revenue Service numbers, early tax filers are receiving larger refunds than at the same period last year. As of February 6, the average tax refund paid to taxpayers was $2,290. This represents a 10.9% increase over the average size of refunds paid at the same point in the 2025 tax filing season, when the average refund amount was $2,065. "Average refund amounts are strong," the IRS stated last week.

While refunds are up so far in the 2026 filing season compared to the previous year, the number of tax returns submitted and processed is down. As of February 6, more than 7.4 million refunds have been granted, an 8.1% decrease from the same period previous year, when almost 8.1 million were distributed to taxpayers. While the number of refunds has decreased, the overall amount reimbursed has increased by 1.9%, from nearly $16.7 billion to nearly $17 billion, contributing to a larger average refund size.

Why This News Matters

More money in people's bank accounts means bigger tax refunds, which is good news for many Americans who are still dealing with high living costs. For a lot of families, refunds help them pay off debt, buy necessities, or make big purchases. Bigger refunds could also help people spend more money in the coming months. However, early signs point to higher earners getting the most benefit from recent tax changes, while slower filing could mean that some families have to wait longer for relief.

Direct Deposits and Filing Volume Trends

According to IRS data, the average direct deposit refund increased by a similar amount when compared to this point in last year's tax filing season. The average direct deposit return for the current year is $2,388 - up 10.3% from $2,165 at this time last year. As of February 6, the IRS said that it had received over 22.4 million returns, a 5.2% decline from the same point in the filing season previous year, when nearly 23.6 million returns were submitted. Tax season officially began on January 26, 2026.

Refunds are likely to grow in size as the tax season advances. This is due, in part, to the fact that lower-income Americans file earlier, and wealthier households, with more complex tax returns, file later. According to Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, the average refund amount normally begins small, peaks in mid-February, and then declines slightly until the end of tax season. The average refund last year was $2,939, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

IRS Processing Timelines and Tracking Tools

The IRS provides an online "Where's my refund?" feature that allows taxpayers to check the status of their tax return. According to the IRS website, processing a tax refund takes up to 21 days for e-filed forms, whereas mail-in returns can take six weeks or more to reach the taxpayer. Refunds may take longer if the return requires revisions or additional examination.

Taxpayers preparing to submit their forms might consider setting up direct deposit with the IRS if they want to get their refund sooner. Taxpayers who e-file their forms can usually see their refund status within 24 hours using the "Where's my refund?" service, which can show refund information for not only the current year but also the previous two years.

If a person has to alter their return after filing, it may take longer to obtain their tax return. Amended returns may take up to three weeks to appear in the IRS system and up to 16 weeks to process. The IRS also provides a "Where's my amended return?" option for taxpayers who have filed an amended return and wish to follow the status of their filing and any resulting refund.

Expected Increases from New Tax Law

Forecasters expected that filers will receive higher checks this year as a result of a number of new tax provisions included in President Trump's "one big, beautiful" plan, enacted in July 2025. Piper Sandler, a financial services firm, calculated that the average payment would increase by $1,000 per filer. According to White House forecasts and independent analysis from organizations such as the Tax Foundation, average refunds might increase by up to $1,000 per filer, thanks to retroactive provisions such as "No Tax on Tips" and "No Tax on Overtime."

According to analysts, the top 10% of households are likely to benefit the most. Lower-income taxpayers will benefit as well, although they are less likely to see a significant increase in return amounts than higher-income households, according to a January 30 analysis by investment firm Principal Asset Management.

IRS Data Updates and Credit Processing Outlook

During tax season, the IRS normally discloses a new set of data every week, with a few additional updates after filing closes on April 15. The agency stated that it anticipates refund numbers to be higher when it issues an update on February 27. That's because by then, the government will have processed some of the refunds for Americans who used the Earned Income Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit, which are refundable tax credits meant for low- to moderate-income working families.

President Trump’s Economic and Refund Outlook

President Donald Trump promised that Americans would have the "largest tax refund season ever" this spring, citing his administration's legislative improvements for a major flow of cash into household bank accounts. Speaking with Fox Business host Larry Kudlow, the President praised the achievements of the "One Big Beautiful Bill," a comprehensive four-year legislative package completed earlier in his presidency.

Trump underlined that the plan was intended to consolidate 17 separate proposals into a single "miracle" of legislation that he believes will steady the US economy for the rest of the decade. “We put it together, and we got it passed, and we're short of a miracle,” Trump said. He also stated that refunds will be covered by tariff income and referred to them as a dividend to the public. Trump ignored traditional economic forecasts of 3% GDP growth, instead aiming for 15% growth, claiming "100% immediate expensing" and an anticipated $18 trillion in domestic investment.

Market Performance and ETF Movements

As of Tuesday's end, the Dow Jones index was up 3.73% year to date, while the S&P 500 was up 1.22%. However, the Nasdaq Composite index fell 0.57% in 2026. Meanwhile, US futures were trading higher early Wednesday after a mixed close on Tuesday.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes, respectively, finished down on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.26% at $692.12, and the QQQ fell 0.46% at $611.47.

What to Watch Next

The IRS's next update, which will come out in late February, will show whether the total amount of refunds goes up as credits for families with low and middle incomes are processed. As the spring economy takes shape, keep an eye on whether more people are filing taxes, how the average refund compares to last year's $2,939, and whether bigger refunds lead to more consumer spending.